Commit 366c395a authored by Uria Martinez, Rocio's avatar Uria Martinez, Rocio
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**2025 model update** 

- Update of AEO-related model inputs to AEO2025
	- Transportation fuel demand and trajectories
	- Prices of natural gas and electricity in the industrial sector
		- Harmonized workflow between this and the rest of AEO inputs
	- Use of biomass in the power sector
- Corrected errors in harmonizing all price/cost variables into 2020 dollars
	- Errors affected the AEO-related price inputs and the biomass feedstock supply prices
	- For tax credits (federal and state), no dollar year correction was being done. Now, all tax credits are converted to 2020 dollars.
- Updates to TEA parameters:
	- yield mix from Fischer-Tropsch conversion of woody energy crops
	- Changed TECHPROG (both the ratio between cost of FOAK and nth plant and the period length to go from one to the other)
	- Eliminated preprocessing cost for FOGs
	- Updated historical data on biorefinery capacity by pathway and state
- Policy changes:
	- RFS renewable fuel blending percentages for 2026 and 2027 correspond to the ones proposed in the RFS SET 2 proposed rule
	- Eliminated biobased-diesel mandate from MA
	- Change in duration of 45Z tax credits (to 2029 instead of 2027) and elimination of bonus 45Z credit for SAF
	- Added state-level SAF tax credits for IA and AR
	- Added inputs to be able to switch on or off total budget constraints on state-level SAF tax credits for some states (MN, IA) [CSTATESAFTAXCREDMAXEQ equation]
	- Added R index to TKC and KC parameters (to capture AR SAF tax credit on SAF production facilities in the state)
	- Made the changes to CA LCFS CI benchmarks approved in July 2025 the new baseline settings (now there is no difference between baseline and high policy support settings for these parameters)
	- Made the changes to WA CFS CI benchmarks approved in 2025 the new baseline settings (and have a high policy support option to accommodate the most ambitious option for post-2027 CI benchmarks)
	- Turned off adjustments in reference quantity trajectories for liquid fuels in states with CI standards (they were necessary to be consistent with assumptions on exogenous credits because AEO 2023 was too conservative in EV adoption trajectories, but policies included in AEO 2025 make its liquid fuel trajectories more in line with exogenous credit assumptions).
parent 6260533d

BioTrans_p.gdx

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data.gms

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data_inputs/AEO2021cases_bioref_energy_input_p.csv

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data_inputs/AEO2023cases_bioref_energy_input_p.csv

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data_inputs/AEO2025_EXOGD_CSUPF_OTHER.csv

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Original line number Diff line number Diff line 
"biotrans_scenario","CSUPF","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050"

"BAU","MSW_SUP_F",8.225705,8.76597,9.32051125,9.79403625,10.02416,10.4479825,10.595915,11.03131125,11.53186125,11.9959275,12.35471375,12.728305,12.89168875,13.3055825,13.73839375,13.985085,14.3809425,14.98965125,15.2198925,15.59418875,15.80745125,16.0562575,16.08146125,16.40775875,16.66320375,16.76413625,16.7325875

"HWOP","MSW_SUP_F",8.22594,8.79276,9.3141075,9.7140775,9.9370925,10.45943875,10.73292,11.16161875,11.62874,12.04392625,12.42709375,12.85279625,13.24336625,13.61572375,14.03989875,14.27818875,14.60671875,14.8817275,15.087705,15.63766375,15.867905,16.10590125,16.1239375,16.401355,16.610505,16.62078625,16.5079275

"LWOP","MSW_SUP_F",8.22564625,8.7898225,9.32527,9.828405,10.115575,10.498155,10.621765,11.06427,11.61857625,12.11325125,12.43860875,12.7763625,13.0026675,13.38401375,13.9073,14.296695,14.485165,14.53563125,12.2144775,12.2962575,11.70059125,11.96132375,12.5596925,13.176215,13.76847375,14.01545875,14.1059925

"BAU","FRT_SUP_F",176.713076923077,185.926538461538,185.327538461538,183.361384615385,181.682769230769,182.240384615385,182.864461538462,183.464538461538,183.864538461538,183.367692307692,183.745461538462,184.344,186.088307692308,187.247692307692,188.175076923077,189.446076923077,190.111769230769,189.658538461538,189.781,189.043307692308,188.856846153846,189.537846153846,190.225153846154,191.389846153846,193.018923076923,194.661076923077,196.373846153846

"HWOP","FRT_SUP_F",176.711384615385,179.067846153846,182.921846153846,185.481846153846,183.689461538462,184.230692307692,185.591230769231,186.450307692308,187.534153846154,187.885692307692,188.154692307692,189.155692307692,190.635230769231,190.616538461538,190.795,191.643384615385,192.324384615385,191.549,191.374384615385,190.936,191.132615384615,191.422384615385,192.383384615385,192.679923076923,194.214230769231,194.729615384615,195.296769230769

"LWOP","FRT_SUP_F",176.708461538462,174.896846153846,174.148076923077,172.36,171.655230769231,173.157692307692,174.719846153846,175.757923076923,176.614,177.414076923077,178.061,178.768,180.615076923077,181.556076923077,182.180230769231,183.235076923077,184.532307692308,184.869230769231,186.397076923077,185.766384615385,192.467307692308,194.081230769231,194.896615384615,196.208769230769,197.739307692308,199.074076923077,200.287461538462

"BAU","FOG_SUP_F",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

"HWOP","FOG_SUP_F",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

"LWOP","FOG_SUP_F",0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0